Concept
Advances in chip technology, connectivity, proliferation of AI in our lives, and privacy concerns will drive a shift towards personal cloud computing - powerful decentralized computing devices under individual control. This could threaten the dominance of major public cloud providers or it could enable a new renaissance of Local Compute.
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Longer Description
Public cloud computing has been a huge driver of innovation and value creation. However, there are a few trends that could catalyze a shift to more personal, decentralized/Local computing:
- More powerful chips: Chips are becoming vastly more powerful, energy efficient, and performant. This could enable highly capable personal computing devices.
- 5G and beyond: Next-gen connectivity will enable fast transfer of data between devices, supporting distributed computing across personal devices.
- Privacy concerns: There is increasing concern over privacy and data usage in the public cloud. Personal computing can address this by keeping data on user-controlled devices. This could be important for healthcare data or other sensitive data that we use to inform AI models.
- Aggregation of smart devices: The number of connected smart devices individuals own is proliferating. If these could be clustered to provide collective computing power, it may offset the need for public cloud computing for some use cases.
Some possibilities for how this could emerge:
- Hyper-powerful mobile devices: A single mobile device with specialized chips that can handle most everyday computing needs without relying on the cloud. Apple is well positioned for this with their advancement in mobile chips and control over the tech stack.
- Personal cloud clusters: Individuals could network their smart devices (phones, speakers, watches, laptops) into a personal cloud cluster, distributing computing across them.
- Federated computing: Advancements in federated learning and secure multi-party computation could enable collaborative computing across personal devices while preserving privacy.
- In-Home compute stacks: As our normal lives become more compute heavy we could imagine a world in which the equivalent of A100s or H100s are brought into the home.
While public cloud providers have strong network effects and resources, personal cloud computing represents an alternative that could disrupt their dominance if the technological and social conditions are right. The companies or startups that can enable truly powerful, private computing solutions may be poised to lead this shift.